Submit Your Blog
Submit Your Blog to these Sites:
RSS Network - submit RSS feeds & select cataegoryBlog Digger - submit your rss feed for your blog
Blogarama - submit your blog
BlogStreet - blog submissions
Globe of Blogs - submit your rss feed for you blog
Kmax Blog Links - blog submission
BlogDex - submit your blog
Blog Universe - blog submission
BlogSearchEngine - submit rss feeds for web logs
BlogHop - submit feeds for blogs
BlogWise - rss feed submission for blogs
EatonWeb - submit feed for online blogs
PopDex - feed sumbission for web blogs
Blizg - submit rss feeds for web logs
Blo.gs - blog submissions
BlogCensus - submit your rss feed for your blog
BlogTree - blog submission
BlogStreet - rss feed submission for blog
BritBlog - blog submission
BlogLines - submit your blog to the directory
Bloogz - submit your blog
Australian Blog Directory - submit your blog
BoingBoing - submit blogs for review
RootBlog - enter the URL of a RSS feed you want to added to the database.
Weblog Directory - submit blog to directory
BlogoSphere EcoSystems - add your weblog
Blogz - add your blog
BlogWatcher - submit the url of your web log
BlogMatcher - submit your blog url
BlogPulse - automated trend discovery system for blogs
BlogCatalog - The Ultimate Blog Directory - Search For Blogs
Blogdex - add a weblog
Blogdir - spanish blog community
Australian Weblogs - Australian Weblogs seeks to highlight Australian owned or based weblog, everything-nothing and journal style web sites.
AllAfrica Blogs - open listing of Africa-related weblogs
Canadian Blog Directory - BlogsCanada is maintained by a couple of Elves who evaluate blogs for inclusion in the directory. All submissions are subject to the Elves' evaluation.
Corzblog - blog submissions
BlogSearchEngine - submit your blog
DeskFeeds - rss feed and blog submissions
Blog Dump - submit your online web log to the dump!
WebLog Directory - submit your blog
Weblog Madness - blog sumission sites
Findory - blog submissions
Ploogle - submit blog
Submit Your Blog to these Sites:
Directory of RSS Feed Submission Sites
Favorite Blogs
Software Marketing Blog
SMR Marketing blog and information
Small Business Blog
small business blog and information for business owners
RSS Specifications Blog
rss and blog information
NotePage Blog
wireless, SMS and paging blog
Thursday, November 15, 2007
ADSENSE HELPS.......
Simple trick to increase the CTR on Adsense
Making money with Adsense is based on how many clicks you get on the ads. Also it’s important on what market is your website and how much are paying the advertisers for the ads.
From my experience i know that websites who server communities or have a lot of returning users tend to receive a lower CTR than websites that receive a large number of new visitors. This is happening because the returning users might go familiar with the ads on your website and will search only for the info they need, avoiding clicking on ads.
What i suggest is to promote your websites more on Yahoo and MSN. Visitors coming from these SE’s are not so familiar with Google Ads, so they are more predicted to click on the ads.
What i noticed is that, if your ads are placed good and you are receiving a large number of visitors from these SE’s, 40-50% of them will click on the ads.
Permalink Comments
-->
Finding the best idea to launch a new website
Starting a new website is a challenge. There are so many websites at this moment on web, and most of them are the same, presenting the same things, nothing new all the time.
Coming with a new idea is the best way to have success at this moment on the internet. But finding a unique idea is the hardest way.
So how you can come with a new idea and profit from it?
The best way is to search what sites are at this moment on the internet and to come with an extension to what they offer. Come with something that they do not have and you think the users will love. Make a product or a service that will add value to another service.
Don’t copy other websites that you think are verry profitable to run, because if you don’t have the experience or the money to spend you will fail.
Permalink Comments
-->
Official AdWords Seminars: Become an expert in just one day
Led by leading search engine advertising professionals, these full-day in-person seminars will help you learn how to make the most of the time and money you invest in Google AdWords.
Regardless of skill or experience level, anyone can benefit from the morning Intermediate sessions. For attendees new to Pay per Click, this course will lay out the basic building blocks needed to create and manage your first successful AdWords campaign. For SEM professionals, the intermediate course will be a thorough refresher on the fundamentals of optimization strategies and techniques.
PC optimizer
The afternoon Advanced session is full of expert tips and tricks for truly maximizing your ROI. Learn how to use the latest tools and cutting edge technologies to get the results you have been reaching to attain.
Permalink Comments
-->
Avoid SEO deals that sound too good to be true
The hungry for traffic is making a low of website owners and seo project managers to search all over the internet for high traffic deals.
You can find all over the internet people from different countries, some of them knowing nothing about internet marketing and search engine marketing, promising the moon from the sky at low prices or on short term.
For example some so called “experts” are offering 500 directory submissions for $20. Take one minute and think about it. You will do this work for $20? In what case you will do this for $20? Yes, if the time of execution is fast. So, they are using submission softwares that in most of the cases fail, and the results are weak.
Another example are people who will tell you that they will bring you to the top 10 in Google, for competitive keywords in short time and with few money spent. It is possible only if they will do black hat seo, but in time your site will be penalized from Google and the money spent from you are thrown through the window.
There is not short way to online success.You need hard work, and a lot of knowledge if you want to do it by yourself.If your not able pay someone for consulting, and you will shoot 2 rabbits from one fire: you will pay less and you will learn how to do it.
Permalink Comments
-->
Google is dancing latino?
I have some experience in SEO and internet marketing, but some things i have seen these days are too strange to understand.
From the beginning i want to tell that i am not doing: link building campaigns, link buy, link exchanges, copy articles from other websites or anything that might violate the webmaster guidelines made by Google.
What i do: i regularly update my content with new articles made by me (not copies) and i participate on discussions on some blogs or forums where i have interest. And that’s all.
This month happened to 2 websites of mine a strange problem. 2 times this month i have been on top 10 for some good keywords, and yes 2 times google pushed me back. Every time after 2 weeks the websites were back on the good road.
From my experience this happens when, you lost links, you copy content, or violate some Google tos. Well i didn’t done anything from this.
If there is anyone able to tell me what’s going one maybe i am able to pay him.
Permalink Comments
-->
Working at home using AdSense and the power of the internet
Most of the people don’t want to have a boss.Working at home is a dream for most of the people, but few can achieve this with success.In a business you need to have the skills and the strength to endure unpredicted situations.
Any business in the world is having on behind an great idea or great product.
This is what you need. An idea or a product that is new or can complete another product that is on the market at this moment.
For example you have a passion for pit bull dogs. You can start an informational website about these dogs, a forum, a blog, also you can start an online market for people wanting to sell or buy pit bulls or pit bull puppies.In this website you can implement a lot of income streams like AdSense, direct advertising from companies working in the same industry, paid classifieds posting for dogs.
This is just an example. You can explore a lot of vertical markets that are untouched at this moment on internet.
Remember, like in all businesses if you have a passion in what you do you will succeed for sure.
Permalink Comments
-->
Free self publishing - the new way to make money online
Today the internet offers to all of us great ways to make money online.If you have a talent in writing or giving advice to other people, the free internet online self publishing is the way for you to make money.
If you want to
RegistryBooster a website like lulu.com can help you verry much.
You can start publishing and selling in just minutes, and there are no setup fees,. You keep the control on your rights, set your own price and more.
Permalink Comments
-->
How to attract attention on ads
The major problem of all advertisers or publishers if how to make people interested in their ads and products.
For advertisers who are using AdWords, Overture, Aviva or other related PPC programs it’s not relevant the number of the people clicking on the ads. For them it’s relevant to make people buy after they click on the ad. So having a lot if not targeted visitors (just curious visitors) are not so welcomed because this will cost money with no return.
If you are an advertiser, try to make clear what you are offering from the very top. If you sell something put there the price. This way you will get a small number of people that are not interested to purchase.
If you are an AdSense publisher try to blend your ads with the content. The ads placed on the right or at the bottom of the page are receiving a lot more clicks than the ads placed on the top left or at the left of every article.
Permalink Comments
-->
High number of adsense page impressions but no clicks
Do you have a website that is receiving a lot of page impression / visitors bu no clicks?
Well there are a lot of publishers facing the same problem.
Reasons why you might have no clicks:
your visitors are not targeted (the are coming from site like digg)
your ads are not well blended with the content
you have a forum (usually the forums are receiving a small CTR)
the ads that are displayed on your website are not targeting your content
Below i will explain:
If your visitors are not targeted, they come from emails or other brute forced ways to get visitors it is possible to have a small CTR or nothing. Also visitors coming from Digg or other websites like this are stuffed with advertising so they will not click on your ads.
If your ads are too evident to the visitors they will not make any click. Remember if a visitor comes to your website, they want to see what you offer. Few of them are interested to click on other advertisers that are on your website.
If you own a forum, try to put the ads in every forum post, blend them with the content. Don’t put your AdSense to the top of the forum in a 468×60 banner or at the bottom.
The AdSense bot has not crawled all the pages of your website. It takes some time until you gett all the ads on your website targeted to your content.
Permalink Comments
-->
Taking the most from affiliate programs
Puting all you egs in one bag is bad. You must find new ways to monetize your website’s traffic, and, if you have a lot of traffic this is easy.
I recognize that AdSense it’s a good way to make some money, but try to find more income streams that ce work good with AdSense. For example Amazon and CJ.com.
On some sites where i make reviews to niche market products i have a lot of success with Amazon, because people can read some reviews and after that they can find a link from where they can buy that product. This increases the chance for a buy.
With Amazon you make about 4% from the total value of the product, but if you refer more sells in one month you can make a nice 6% per sale.
What you need to do:
find a good niche product;
learn about how to present the product;
make some simple landing pages with reviews;
exchange links with other sites related to yours;
promote on AdWords.
Good luck!
Permalink Comments
-->« Previous entries
Pages
5 Unique Ways to get more Free Traffic
Adsense Sandbox?
Creating a Website Based on Adsense Revenue Model
Google AdSense Rewards Content with Advertising Revenue
Google, Adsense, SEO, and How It All Works
Marketing Your Website
$1 Million in Google AdSense Earnings
10 Great Search Engine Optimization Tools for Your Online Success
5 Tips on Using Private Label Content
Best online marketing practices
Google Losing Fan Base?
Google Onsite Advertiser - Let The Bidding Wars Begin!
Help others find out about us.
How I Discovered an Amazing Amount of High Quality Google Adsense Alternatives
How to Create and Distribute an E-Course
I Earn $250 A Day Through Google Adsense And So Can You
Mega Adsense Earners - The New Tips
Partners
The AdSense CD - start a profitable adsense website
What is more important when makin money with AdSense?
PR is not important
Add me to your del.icio.us network
Archives
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September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
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November 2006
October 2006
August 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
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January 2006
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AdSense
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Offshore Software Development
Outsource Programming
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Web Designers Dundee UK
Web Site Development
Web Site Logo Design
Your page ranks, statistics
Partners
Best Web Directories
Business web design
Christian website designs
Free Web Directory
Graphic Design Web Development
Link Building Agency
Pay for SEO on Results
Professional Web Design and Development Service
Professional web hosting services
Programming tutorials
SE Submission
Smart Browser
Smartpagerank
Web Designer Philippines
Sponsor
electronic medical record business software
Freelance Webmaster
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Meta
Register
Login
Entries RSS
Comments RSS
Wordpress
Making money with Adsense is based on how many clicks you get on the ads. Also it’s important on what market is your website and how much are paying the advertisers for the ads.
From my experience i know that websites who server communities or have a lot of returning users tend to receive a lower CTR than websites that receive a large number of new visitors. This is happening because the returning users might go familiar with the ads on your website and will search only for the info they need, avoiding clicking on ads.
What i suggest is to promote your websites more on Yahoo and MSN. Visitors coming from these SE’s are not so familiar with Google Ads, so they are more predicted to click on the ads.
What i noticed is that, if your ads are placed good and you are receiving a large number of visitors from these SE’s, 40-50% of them will click on the ads.
Permalink Comments
-->
Finding the best idea to launch a new website
Starting a new website is a challenge. There are so many websites at this moment on web, and most of them are the same, presenting the same things, nothing new all the time.
Coming with a new idea is the best way to have success at this moment on the internet. But finding a unique idea is the hardest way.
So how you can come with a new idea and profit from it?
The best way is to search what sites are at this moment on the internet and to come with an extension to what they offer. Come with something that they do not have and you think the users will love. Make a product or a service that will add value to another service.
Don’t copy other websites that you think are verry profitable to run, because if you don’t have the experience or the money to spend you will fail.
Permalink Comments
-->
Official AdWords Seminars: Become an expert in just one day
Led by leading search engine advertising professionals, these full-day in-person seminars will help you learn how to make the most of the time and money you invest in Google AdWords.
Regardless of skill or experience level, anyone can benefit from the morning Intermediate sessions. For attendees new to Pay per Click, this course will lay out the basic building blocks needed to create and manage your first successful AdWords campaign. For SEM professionals, the intermediate course will be a thorough refresher on the fundamentals of optimization strategies and techniques.
PC optimizer
The afternoon Advanced session is full of expert tips and tricks for truly maximizing your ROI. Learn how to use the latest tools and cutting edge technologies to get the results you have been reaching to attain.
Permalink Comments
-->
Avoid SEO deals that sound too good to be true
The hungry for traffic is making a low of website owners and seo project managers to search all over the internet for high traffic deals.
You can find all over the internet people from different countries, some of them knowing nothing about internet marketing and search engine marketing, promising the moon from the sky at low prices or on short term.
For example some so called “experts” are offering 500 directory submissions for $20. Take one minute and think about it. You will do this work for $20? In what case you will do this for $20? Yes, if the time of execution is fast. So, they are using submission softwares that in most of the cases fail, and the results are weak.
Another example are people who will tell you that they will bring you to the top 10 in Google, for competitive keywords in short time and with few money spent. It is possible only if they will do black hat seo, but in time your site will be penalized from Google and the money spent from you are thrown through the window.
There is not short way to online success.You need hard work, and a lot of knowledge if you want to do it by yourself.If your not able pay someone for consulting, and you will shoot 2 rabbits from one fire: you will pay less and you will learn how to do it.
Permalink Comments
-->
Google is dancing latino?
I have some experience in SEO and internet marketing, but some things i have seen these days are too strange to understand.
From the beginning i want to tell that i am not doing: link building campaigns, link buy, link exchanges, copy articles from other websites or anything that might violate the webmaster guidelines made by Google.
What i do: i regularly update my content with new articles made by me (not copies) and i participate on discussions on some blogs or forums where i have interest. And that’s all.
This month happened to 2 websites of mine a strange problem. 2 times this month i have been on top 10 for some good keywords, and yes 2 times google pushed me back. Every time after 2 weeks the websites were back on the good road.
From my experience this happens when, you lost links, you copy content, or violate some Google tos. Well i didn’t done anything from this.
If there is anyone able to tell me what’s going one maybe i am able to pay him.
Permalink Comments
-->
Working at home using AdSense and the power of the internet
Most of the people don’t want to have a boss.Working at home is a dream for most of the people, but few can achieve this with success.In a business you need to have the skills and the strength to endure unpredicted situations.
Any business in the world is having on behind an great idea or great product.
This is what you need. An idea or a product that is new or can complete another product that is on the market at this moment.
For example you have a passion for pit bull dogs. You can start an informational website about these dogs, a forum, a blog, also you can start an online market for people wanting to sell or buy pit bulls or pit bull puppies.In this website you can implement a lot of income streams like AdSense, direct advertising from companies working in the same industry, paid classifieds posting for dogs.
This is just an example. You can explore a lot of vertical markets that are untouched at this moment on internet.
Remember, like in all businesses if you have a passion in what you do you will succeed for sure.
Permalink Comments
-->
Free self publishing - the new way to make money online
Today the internet offers to all of us great ways to make money online.If you have a talent in writing or giving advice to other people, the free internet online self publishing is the way for you to make money.
If you want to
RegistryBooster a website like lulu.com can help you verry much.
You can start publishing and selling in just minutes, and there are no setup fees,. You keep the control on your rights, set your own price and more.
Permalink Comments
-->
How to attract attention on ads
The major problem of all advertisers or publishers if how to make people interested in their ads and products.
For advertisers who are using AdWords, Overture, Aviva or other related PPC programs it’s not relevant the number of the people clicking on the ads. For them it’s relevant to make people buy after they click on the ad. So having a lot if not targeted visitors (just curious visitors) are not so welcomed because this will cost money with no return.
If you are an advertiser, try to make clear what you are offering from the very top. If you sell something put there the price. This way you will get a small number of people that are not interested to purchase.
If you are an AdSense publisher try to blend your ads with the content. The ads placed on the right or at the bottom of the page are receiving a lot more clicks than the ads placed on the top left or at the left of every article.
Permalink Comments
-->
High number of adsense page impressions but no clicks
Do you have a website that is receiving a lot of page impression / visitors bu no clicks?
Well there are a lot of publishers facing the same problem.
Reasons why you might have no clicks:
your visitors are not targeted (the are coming from site like digg)
your ads are not well blended with the content
you have a forum (usually the forums are receiving a small CTR)
the ads that are displayed on your website are not targeting your content
Below i will explain:
If your visitors are not targeted, they come from emails or other brute forced ways to get visitors it is possible to have a small CTR or nothing. Also visitors coming from Digg or other websites like this are stuffed with advertising so they will not click on your ads.
If your ads are too evident to the visitors they will not make any click. Remember if a visitor comes to your website, they want to see what you offer. Few of them are interested to click on other advertisers that are on your website.
If you own a forum, try to put the ads in every forum post, blend them with the content. Don’t put your AdSense to the top of the forum in a 468×60 banner or at the bottom.
The AdSense bot has not crawled all the pages of your website. It takes some time until you gett all the ads on your website targeted to your content.
Permalink Comments
-->
Taking the most from affiliate programs
Puting all you egs in one bag is bad. You must find new ways to monetize your website’s traffic, and, if you have a lot of traffic this is easy.
I recognize that AdSense it’s a good way to make some money, but try to find more income streams that ce work good with AdSense. For example Amazon and CJ.com.
On some sites where i make reviews to niche market products i have a lot of success with Amazon, because people can read some reviews and after that they can find a link from where they can buy that product. This increases the chance for a buy.
With Amazon you make about 4% from the total value of the product, but if you refer more sells in one month you can make a nice 6% per sale.
What you need to do:
find a good niche product;
learn about how to present the product;
make some simple landing pages with reviews;
exchange links with other sites related to yours;
promote on AdWords.
Good luck!
Permalink Comments
-->« Previous entries
Pages
5 Unique Ways to get more Free Traffic
Adsense Sandbox?
Creating a Website Based on Adsense Revenue Model
Google AdSense Rewards Content with Advertising Revenue
Google, Adsense, SEO, and How It All Works
Marketing Your Website
$1 Million in Google AdSense Earnings
10 Great Search Engine Optimization Tools for Your Online Success
5 Tips on Using Private Label Content
Best online marketing practices
Google Losing Fan Base?
Google Onsite Advertiser - Let The Bidding Wars Begin!
Help others find out about us.
How I Discovered an Amazing Amount of High Quality Google Adsense Alternatives
How to Create and Distribute an E-Course
I Earn $250 A Day Through Google Adsense And So Can You
Mega Adsense Earners - The New Tips
Partners
The AdSense CD - start a profitable adsense website
What is more important when makin money with AdSense?
PR is not important
Add me to your del.icio.us network
Archives
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
August 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
Categories
For publishers
AdSense
Uncategorized
Add to you feed reader
Blogroll
640-801
Affordable UK Website Design Company
Buy Chiropractic Billing Software
Certification
Complete Event Management Software
Custom Software Development
Data Center Consulting
Free Mobile Application
Icons
Installation Software
Joomla website design
Microsoft Certification
Offshore Software Development
Outsource Programming
Portland search engine optimization
Reseller Web Hosting
Seo India
Testking
Web Designers Dundee UK
Web Site Development
Web Site Logo Design
Your page ranks, statistics
Partners
Best Web Directories
Business web design
Christian website designs
Free Web Directory
Graphic Design Web Development
Link Building Agency
Pay for SEO on Results
Professional Web Design and Development Service
Professional web hosting services
Programming tutorials
SE Submission
Smart Browser
Smartpagerank
Web Designer Philippines
Sponsor
electronic medical record business software
Freelance Webmaster
Link Building
Meta
Register
Login
Entries RSS
Comments RSS
Wordpress
INTERNET COMMERCE REVOLUTION
This paper attempts to clarify terminology discussing the interface between commerce and the Internet. It is also an empirically derived classification system or taxonomy of existing Internet business models. This taxonomy has two main branches - transplanted real-world business models and native Internet business models. The latter part of the paper discusses the role of business, governments, regulation and ideology in the development of I-Commerce and makes some cautious speculations regarding its future.
Contents
Introduction
Transplanted Real-World Business Models
Native Internet Business Models
Government and Internet Commerce
Privacy and Internet Commerce
I-Commerce and Economic Rationalism
Scarcity, Territory and Cyberspace
Disintermediation and Competition
Conclusion: Internet Imperialism
There are several terms used to describe business that takes place on the Internet. These include Electronic Commerce (E-Commerce), the Information Economy, the Online Economy and Internet Commerce. Literal interpretations of these terms denote particular domains of activity and little rigour is applied to their application. As the terms Electronic Commerce (E-Commerce), the Information Economy, and the Online Economy denote activities not limited to the Internet the term Internet Commerce (or I-Commerce) will be used in this document to denote commercial activities associated with the Internet. The term Electronic Commerce (e-commerce) should be understood to include the conduct of business with the assistance of telecommunications and information technology; it is not limited to business conducted on the Internet.
In this taxonomy, Internet Commerce falls into two broad categories. These are Transplanted real-world Business Models (business activities which occur naturally in the real-world and have been transplanted onto the Internet) and Native Internet Business Models (business activities which have evolved in the Internet environment and are native to it). I am using the term "business" in its broadest sense including barter, exchange, interaction and activities of a transactional nature. These do not necessarily involve money but are still commercial. Business or commerce should be understood as those cultural activities which are transactional. The net is a hot house of transactional fecundity and for this reason this taxonomy is necessarily incomplete.
Transplanted Real-World Business Models
These are business models or activities which exist in the real-world and have been transplanted into the Internet environment.
The mail-order model is typified by enterprises such as Amazon.com where a Web site shop front is employed to sell physical goods which are then posted or delivered. While goods are advertised and payment is made via the Internet these enterprises are very much based in the real-world and are really traditional retail operations with a Web-based shop front. This is probably the most common Internet business model and is the model best understood by governments.
The advertising based model accounts for the success of many search engine companies such as Yahoo and also supports many other free Web sites. This model is similar to that used by commercial television and free print publications, where advertising revenues support the operation of a free service. There are numerous variations on this model but many involve the use of banner hyperlinked ads. Clicking on an ad banner takes a Web surfer to a product home site and also records a click on the original site. There is usually some relationship between ad banner click rates and fees paid to the site owners hosting the ad banner by the advertiser. Cookies or other means may be employed to count clicks.
The subscription model is well suited for combination with digital delivery. Typically a user will subscribe for access to a database of digital products for a specified period of time. Some music sites and most pornography sites operate in this way. Adult verification services, where a fee is paid via credit card for access to a large number of adult sites, are also examples of the subscription model.
The free trial model for software is similar to the "30 days free trial" retail model. Basically software is available for free download or distributed on CD-ROM but will only work for a limited period or will not be fully functional until a fee is paid and the software is registered. Registration is often mediated by an automated Internet session. Commercial software companies use this model as well as individuals and groups who are independent software developers. The software developed by these independents is often called shareware. The fee is generally small compared to mainstream commercial software.
The direct marketing model. The use of electronic mail direct marketing (known as spam) on the Internet has become so widespread and intrusive that it is almost universally abhorred. Spam is probably the most dramatic example of a real-world business model being crudely transplanted on to the Internet. The lack of real-world controls on the Internet has permitted the unrestrained proliferation of spam. What is remarkable about spam is that by and large the adverse public relations created by its use has not functioned as a deterrent to the spammers.
The real estate model. Some enterprises apply this model by selling Web space, domain names and e-mail addresses. While the word "domain" implies ownership or control of territory, the management of the imaginary territory of the Domain Name System is somewhat confused and distorted by commercial considerations. There are legitimate concerns over intellectual property such as trademarks and practices which in the real-world are characteristic of the real estate business. There is obvious utility to having an address which is simple and memorable or which resembles a product name. Such names are necessarily scarce if not unique and therefore valuable. There are some Web-based enterprises which have secured ownership to domains which incorporate common names and words.
Incentive scheme models are sometimes combined with advertising. Examples include so-called "permission-marketing" and competitions. Opportunities to win prizes or to secure "free" or inexpensive goods or services are used to entice people to accept advertising or to provide personal information. Some Web-based market research companies use this model.
Business to Business. The aforementioned models concentrate on the consumer market, but there's a large amount of business transacted between corporate entities via the Internet. The payment infrastructure behind I-Commerce involves activity between vendors, credit card companies, banks, Internet Service Providers (ISPs), Certification Authorities (CAs), software companies and others. Internet business-to-business transactions also include (but are not be limited to) financial, research, legal and employment services.
Combinations of the above models. The digital environment encourages the combination of various business models and many Internet enterprises employee creative combinations of various models. There are numerous software suites which enable online shopping (including virtual shopping baskets) and online payment (an extremely competitive market at present). Online payment is still largely dominated by credit cards since e-cash, cyber-cash, and micro-payment systems have not yet flourished. The domination of credit cards may be augmented by the introduction of smart cards including anonymous stored value cards. Other software products which facilitate forms of I-Commerce include multimedia digital delivery products which enable the "streaming" of digital video and audio.
Native Internet Business Models
It is rarely acknowledged that most of the business that takes place on the Internet does not involve money. Much of the software that underpins the Internet and the World Wide Web is freeware or shareware. In the midst of the current hype about e-commerce, most users of the Internet are not engaged in actually spending money but rather securing free products or in obtaining some product or service by barter.
The nature of the native Internet economy is explored in the paper "Cooking pot markets: an economic model for the trade in free goods and services on the Internet" by Rishab Aiyer Ghosh. He notes that most Web sites are created by amateurs who expect no financial return and similarly that postings to discussion groups do not involve financial transactions. He argues that much of value is created and exchanged on the Internet but that the interactions involved are not financial but may involve the accumulation of "reputation capital".
Unlike the real-world the native economy of the Internet is not based on scarcity but on abundance. There is an abundance of information and anyone can trade in it. Clearly the scarcity-based capitalist system that dominates the real-world economy is quite different from the native Internet economy. Unfortunately, governments and real-world business interests have tended to treat the Internet like a piece of real estate or a coal mine (as a scarce resource to be exploited). Here are a few native Internet business models.
The library model. The Internet and the Web in particular are sources of free information. Librarians, academics and scientists were among the first professional groups to grasp the potential of the public network for disseminating and making available free information. One of the basic templates for a Web presence is a site that offers free information; many sites conform to this template.
The freeware model is used extensively by the Internet software community. Much software, including popular Web browsers such as Netscape Navigator and Communicator are available for free download. Other widely used popular freeware or shareware includes the Apache Web server (used to maintain over 50% of Web sites); Linux (Unix-based operating system); GNU; Perl (used for much of the active content on the Net); Majordomo (a mailing list application); Sendmail (e-mail handling and delivery program); INN (which manages Usenet newsgroups); BIND (Berkeley Internet Name Daemon, which maps text domain names to numerical IP addresses); and, numerous development tools. The Free Software Foundation actively promotes a distributed software development model with an unconventional attitude towards copyright.
In the commercial arena, basic versions of software may be free but more extended versions are for sale; Netscape is a successful example of this model. As Netscape's Web browsers became ubiquitous, the company was in a position to market software to corporate clients and offer an extended range of products for sale. This type of asymmetric benefit can result from the native Internet economy.
Open source code is often associated with the freeware business model and the ongoing collaborative development of HTML is just one example. The open source model has largely been responsible for the development of the public network; the development of proprietary standards by some software companies is diametrically opposed to the native freeware culture of the Internet.
The information barter model is very common. It usually involves some sort of exchange of information over the Internet between individuals and organisations. There may be privacy implications where personal information is exchanged for a digital product or service. In some cases personal information may be sold to others to create mailing lists or the information may be used to create profiles or customized advertising without the individual's consent. Some of the popular Internet news services subscribe to this model.
Digital products and the digital delivery model. Digital products exist in the digital realm and may never need to be manifested as physical objects (although they can be). These products include images, movies, animation, audio, text, certificates and software. Digital delivery may take place when products are purchased or where information is bartered. A great deal of digital material that is transmitted or exchanged on the Internet does not involve a financial transaction. There is a natural division between Internet Commerce - which involves the digital delivery of digital products - and that which involves the digital purchase of physical products - which must be posted or physically delivered.
The access provision model is absolutely fundamental to the operation of the Internet but is often neglected in discussions about I-Commerce. This business provides access to the Internet with enterprises called Internet Service Providers (ISPs).
Web site hosting and other Internet services. Many ISPs and other Web-based enterprises provide services such as hosting Web servers, electronic mail and URL and e-mail re-direction services. Some enterprises provide free Web hosting and e-mail. These are usually financed by the inclusion of advertisements on certain sites and within e-mail.
Government and Internet Commerce
The role of governments falls broadly into two categories. Some governments support the development of the Internet as a public enterprise, taking advantage of the Internet to reach the public and encouraging the public and business to use the Internet to communicate more efficiently. Other governments have decided to encourage the Internet as a private initiative, with little governmental involvement. In a number of western states the former role is reasonably well advanced, with many government agencies providing access, information and services via the Internet. Progress in governments supporting private development is generally less advanced.
To some extent this lack of progress on the part of some governments stems from ideological confusion over regulation. The Economic Rationalist ideology holds that private sector business is encouraged by minimum government regulation. This ideology is usually coupled with a Conservative Moral ideology which calls for strict criminal law enforcement and a limitation of personal liberty. When applied to the Internet these two ideologies result in regulatory confusion. Governments seem reluctant to regulate even the most rapacious commercial activities (such as spamming, predatory marketing practices and privacy intrusion) but are keen to apply strict regulation to the distribution of adult-oriented content, the use of cryptography and free speech. This approach - combined with the international reach of the Internet - has worked to promote the proliferation of intrusive and dysfunctional commercial behaviour. It has also discredited many governments in the view of the Internet community.
It is argued by some netizens that to effectively encourage I-Commerce governments should reverse their existing regulatory policies. This would involve the regulation of abusive commercial activities and the relaxation of controls over cryptography and free speech. As Marc Rotenberg (of the Electronic Privacy Information Center) recently put it "The current U.S. privacy policy is backward, we place restrictions on the development of new technologies to protect privacy, where free market solutions would be preferable. And we leave privacy problems to the market, where government involvement is required."
Privacy and Internet Commerce
Because of the capacity of technology and the Internet to process and manipulate information, there is considerable value and competitive advantage in in exploiting personal information. In unregulated free markets the interests of individuals are invariably overwhelmed by commercial considerations. While most information on the Internet is free, personal information retains value both to individuals and commercial interests. Unfortunately a black market in personal information has emerged on the Internet.
The reluctance of some governments to regulate this trade in personal information to protect the interests of individuals in combination with the extra-national nature of the Internet has encouraged the proliferation of abusive practices such as spamming, clickstream surveillance, intrusive marketing and profiling. While the reluctance of governments to regulate is largely the result of ideology, the exigencies of pragmatism may intervene. Privacy advocates have argued that the development of I-Commerce has already been retarded by privacy abuses. Economic Rationalists tend to argue that privacy protection will emerge from the action of markets, but this argument is becoming increasingly discredited
I-Commerce and Economic Rationalism
It is clear that there are fundamental differences between the operation of business on the Internet and in the real world. Indeed it would be surprising if this were not the case. Still there is widespread expectation that business will operate on the Internet in much the same way it operates in the real world. Governments conduct expensive public relations campaigns designed to encourage corporations to "embrace e-commerce". While it is clear that new business opportunities exist on the Internet, governments and businesses, not already engaged in I-Commerce, tend to have a sketchy or erroneous understanding of the Internet (especially its culture) and the nature and potential of I-Commerce.
It may be that the predominant ideology - Economic Rationalism - prevents or hinders a realistic understanding of the Internet and I-Commerce. Economic Rationalism is a set of concepts and beliefs which have shaped and determined government policy, particularly in the developed world for the last two decades. It is in many ways a simplistic and nostalgic ideology, harking back to notions initially described by Adam Smith and Charles Darwin. Its central tenet is that the market should be left unhindered by government regulation and that the free operation of the market will produce maximum prosperity. Adam Smith's "invisible hand" has been resurrected and renamed "market forces". Couple this notion with a tautology of "the survival of the fittest" and you produce an aggressive ideology not amenable to falsification. Economic Rationalism essentially reduces everything to an economic value.
Under Economic Rationalism, the concentration of wealth in the hands of a small percentage of the world's population has accelerated alarmingly. In part this trend is due to divestment by governments of public assets and utilities which have been "privatised" or sold. Economic Rationalist governments seem to be intent on "privatising" the Internet. By turning the Internet over to business, there is an assumption that government revenues will increase through taxation and the global economy will continue to grow.
While much of the infrastructure of the Internet was created by government initiatives, particularly in the United States, much of its practical development has largely been fashioned by its end users. It is the culture of these users which has largely shaped the Internet. Many early Internet users were scientists, programmers, academics, librarians, intellectuals, philosophers, political activists, utopians and artists; they were not representatives of corporations. In recent years, more individuals have joined and contributed to the development of this unique Internet world, making it a viable alternative to the real world (which may explain its fundamental popularity). Native Internet business and culture operates quite differently from real-world business and culture.
Scarcity, Territory and Cyberspace
Humans are territorial; status and fitness are measured largely by the ownership of territory and property. Human economic hierarchy is based on this behaviour and the fact that in the real world territory and property are scarce (which leads to competition). For the purposes of this discussion, territory and property should be understood to be any resource that is scarce, anything from agricultural produce to artifacts such as CPU chips. Scarcity underpins the real-world economy. If some object is scarce, it is valuable; if some objects are abundant, then they are relatively less valuable. Money is a measure of the relative scarcity of property. Some property (such as land) is intrinsically scarce and is therefore intrinsically valuable.
Several Internet terms betray our territoriality, such as domains, cyberspace, namespace, e-mail and IP addresses, and Uniform Resource Locator. We have invested a communications network of computers with imaginary territory, space and place. In reality there is no "there" on the Internet except in the physical location of cables and hardware. Our spatial conception of the Internet is pure analogy.
The native Internet culture has adapted to this imaginary Internet space, which is by definition abundant. Information - the predominant property or commodity - is abundant and largely free. So the native Internet economy is based not on scarcity but on abundance, this is the primary difference between the Internet economy and the real-world. In many ways the native Internet economy is similar to that of hunters and gatherers who inhabit tropical rain forests. Resources are abundant, giving and sharing are culturally valued, status is determined by prowess, contribution and reputation rather than possession of property and territory. The interface between the real-world economy and the native Internet economy is essentially a clash of cultures.
Disintermediation and Competition
Disintermediation is the elimination of the middleman. The proliferation of free products and services as well as non-monetary transactions on the Internet can be related to the grassroots nature of much Internet activity. The fact that many individuals and groups have donated their time, energy and expertise - operating on a digital shoestring - means that they necessarily operate in a disintermediated environment.
While some native Internet business models (such as ISPs and other service providers) are intermediatory, most native Internet business is disintermediated. Hence it is cheap or free. Most real-world business activity is intermediatory; this includes the retail and financial services sectors. A relatively small proportion of real-world business activity produces real goods or services.
The colonisation of the Internet by real-world business enterprises is bound to introduce new layers of intermediation. Such intermediation will tend to introduce a cost. Where a free product or service already exists on the Internet it may be difficult or impossible for a comparable fee-based product or service to compete. The only way for many real-world enterprises to compete is to offer free products and services; access to free browsers from Netscape and Microsoft is an example of this phenomenon. While this situation may present advantages to consumers, it is difficult to see how viable profit margins can be maintained by traditional real-world businesses which seek to colonise the Internet.
Conclusion: Internet Imperialism
It is not clear whether transplanted real-world business models and native Internet business models can co-exist indefinitely. The aggressive nature of real-world business and Economic Rationalism tend towards domination. The native Internet economy and culture islargely free, disintermediated, deep-rooted, ecological, decentralised, radical and politically sophisticated. These two cultures are opposed (if not mutually exclusive) and one or the other may ultimately prevail or new hybrids may emerge.
It is quite possible that I-Commerce will fail to achieve what governments and business expect. Currently, corporations are engaged in the colonisation of the Internet with the assistance of some governments. As planetary environmental limits stem the infinite growth required by capitalism, the Internet is regarded as an infinite territory capable of infinite growth and infinite exploitation. This view of the Internet is fallacious as all human economic activity is limited by physical reality. As Tim May said "You can't eat cyberspace". A global economic recession or depression would undoubtably affect the Internet and the development of I-Commerce.
The unresolved debate around Internet regulation is also a limiting factor. The regulatory controls that have evolved in the real-world economy are not generally operational to the Internet. There is reluctance by some governments and some netizens to accept the necessity of such regulation. While such a regulatory limbo prevails it is unlikely that consumers will embrace I-Commerce en masse. The assumption that consumers will gladly relinquish locally based real-world business (which is usually well regulated by consumer protection regulation and legislation) for a global economic free for all underpins the hyped projections of the exponential growth of I-Commerce. This mass acceptance of Internet Commerce by consumers has not yet happened and may never occur under current conditions.
Internet Commerce may not fail, but its ultimate successful form is probably not what is envisioned by the current crop of Internet Commerce evangelists.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to acknowledge those friends and colleagues who kindly reviewed the document and contributors to the seminal Australian e-list - the Link List (http://sunsite.anu.edu.au/link).
About the Author
Paul Bambury is a composer and producer of electronic music who has released music in Australia and in the USA under the names Alien Headspace and the Trancendental Anarchists, respectively. His interest in Internet Commerce originally sprang from a desire to market his music on the Internet and avoid the exploitative intermediation of some record companies. He is particularly interested in hearing from electronic musicians who seek to use the Internet to sell their music.
E-mail: taqpah@webone.com.au
Contents
Introduction
Transplanted Real-World Business Models
Native Internet Business Models
Government and Internet Commerce
Privacy and Internet Commerce
I-Commerce and Economic Rationalism
Scarcity, Territory and Cyberspace
Disintermediation and Competition
Conclusion: Internet Imperialism
There are several terms used to describe business that takes place on the Internet. These include Electronic Commerce (E-Commerce), the Information Economy, the Online Economy and Internet Commerce. Literal interpretations of these terms denote particular domains of activity and little rigour is applied to their application. As the terms Electronic Commerce (E-Commerce), the Information Economy, and the Online Economy denote activities not limited to the Internet the term Internet Commerce (or I-Commerce) will be used in this document to denote commercial activities associated with the Internet. The term Electronic Commerce (e-commerce) should be understood to include the conduct of business with the assistance of telecommunications and information technology; it is not limited to business conducted on the Internet.
In this taxonomy, Internet Commerce falls into two broad categories. These are Transplanted real-world Business Models (business activities which occur naturally in the real-world and have been transplanted onto the Internet) and Native Internet Business Models (business activities which have evolved in the Internet environment and are native to it). I am using the term "business" in its broadest sense including barter, exchange, interaction and activities of a transactional nature. These do not necessarily involve money but are still commercial. Business or commerce should be understood as those cultural activities which are transactional. The net is a hot house of transactional fecundity and for this reason this taxonomy is necessarily incomplete.
Transplanted Real-World Business Models
These are business models or activities which exist in the real-world and have been transplanted into the Internet environment.
The mail-order model is typified by enterprises such as Amazon.com where a Web site shop front is employed to sell physical goods which are then posted or delivered. While goods are advertised and payment is made via the Internet these enterprises are very much based in the real-world and are really traditional retail operations with a Web-based shop front. This is probably the most common Internet business model and is the model best understood by governments.
The advertising based model accounts for the success of many search engine companies such as Yahoo and also supports many other free Web sites. This model is similar to that used by commercial television and free print publications, where advertising revenues support the operation of a free service. There are numerous variations on this model but many involve the use of banner hyperlinked ads. Clicking on an ad banner takes a Web surfer to a product home site and also records a click on the original site. There is usually some relationship between ad banner click rates and fees paid to the site owners hosting the ad banner by the advertiser. Cookies or other means may be employed to count clicks.
The subscription model is well suited for combination with digital delivery. Typically a user will subscribe for access to a database of digital products for a specified period of time. Some music sites and most pornography sites operate in this way. Adult verification services, where a fee is paid via credit card for access to a large number of adult sites, are also examples of the subscription model.
The free trial model for software is similar to the "30 days free trial" retail model. Basically software is available for free download or distributed on CD-ROM but will only work for a limited period or will not be fully functional until a fee is paid and the software is registered. Registration is often mediated by an automated Internet session. Commercial software companies use this model as well as individuals and groups who are independent software developers. The software developed by these independents is often called shareware. The fee is generally small compared to mainstream commercial software.
The direct marketing model. The use of electronic mail direct marketing (known as spam) on the Internet has become so widespread and intrusive that it is almost universally abhorred. Spam is probably the most dramatic example of a real-world business model being crudely transplanted on to the Internet. The lack of real-world controls on the Internet has permitted the unrestrained proliferation of spam. What is remarkable about spam is that by and large the adverse public relations created by its use has not functioned as a deterrent to the spammers.
The real estate model. Some enterprises apply this model by selling Web space, domain names and e-mail addresses. While the word "domain" implies ownership or control of territory, the management of the imaginary territory of the Domain Name System is somewhat confused and distorted by commercial considerations. There are legitimate concerns over intellectual property such as trademarks and practices which in the real-world are characteristic of the real estate business. There is obvious utility to having an address which is simple and memorable or which resembles a product name. Such names are necessarily scarce if not unique and therefore valuable. There are some Web-based enterprises which have secured ownership to domains which incorporate common names and words.
Incentive scheme models are sometimes combined with advertising. Examples include so-called "permission-marketing" and competitions. Opportunities to win prizes or to secure "free" or inexpensive goods or services are used to entice people to accept advertising or to provide personal information. Some Web-based market research companies use this model.
Business to Business. The aforementioned models concentrate on the consumer market, but there's a large amount of business transacted between corporate entities via the Internet. The payment infrastructure behind I-Commerce involves activity between vendors, credit card companies, banks, Internet Service Providers (ISPs), Certification Authorities (CAs), software companies and others. Internet business-to-business transactions also include (but are not be limited to) financial, research, legal and employment services.
Combinations of the above models. The digital environment encourages the combination of various business models and many Internet enterprises employee creative combinations of various models. There are numerous software suites which enable online shopping (including virtual shopping baskets) and online payment (an extremely competitive market at present). Online payment is still largely dominated by credit cards since e-cash, cyber-cash, and micro-payment systems have not yet flourished. The domination of credit cards may be augmented by the introduction of smart cards including anonymous stored value cards. Other software products which facilitate forms of I-Commerce include multimedia digital delivery products which enable the "streaming" of digital video and audio.
Native Internet Business Models
It is rarely acknowledged that most of the business that takes place on the Internet does not involve money. Much of the software that underpins the Internet and the World Wide Web is freeware or shareware. In the midst of the current hype about e-commerce, most users of the Internet are not engaged in actually spending money but rather securing free products or in obtaining some product or service by barter.
The nature of the native Internet economy is explored in the paper "Cooking pot markets: an economic model for the trade in free goods and services on the Internet" by Rishab Aiyer Ghosh. He notes that most Web sites are created by amateurs who expect no financial return and similarly that postings to discussion groups do not involve financial transactions. He argues that much of value is created and exchanged on the Internet but that the interactions involved are not financial but may involve the accumulation of "reputation capital".
Unlike the real-world the native economy of the Internet is not based on scarcity but on abundance. There is an abundance of information and anyone can trade in it. Clearly the scarcity-based capitalist system that dominates the real-world economy is quite different from the native Internet economy. Unfortunately, governments and real-world business interests have tended to treat the Internet like a piece of real estate or a coal mine (as a scarce resource to be exploited). Here are a few native Internet business models.
The library model. The Internet and the Web in particular are sources of free information. Librarians, academics and scientists were among the first professional groups to grasp the potential of the public network for disseminating and making available free information. One of the basic templates for a Web presence is a site that offers free information; many sites conform to this template.
The freeware model is used extensively by the Internet software community. Much software, including popular Web browsers such as Netscape Navigator and Communicator are available for free download. Other widely used popular freeware or shareware includes the Apache Web server (used to maintain over 50% of Web sites); Linux (Unix-based operating system); GNU; Perl (used for much of the active content on the Net); Majordomo (a mailing list application); Sendmail (e-mail handling and delivery program); INN (which manages Usenet newsgroups); BIND (Berkeley Internet Name Daemon, which maps text domain names to numerical IP addresses); and, numerous development tools. The Free Software Foundation actively promotes a distributed software development model with an unconventional attitude towards copyright.
In the commercial arena, basic versions of software may be free but more extended versions are for sale; Netscape is a successful example of this model. As Netscape's Web browsers became ubiquitous, the company was in a position to market software to corporate clients and offer an extended range of products for sale. This type of asymmetric benefit can result from the native Internet economy.
Open source code is often associated with the freeware business model and the ongoing collaborative development of HTML is just one example. The open source model has largely been responsible for the development of the public network; the development of proprietary standards by some software companies is diametrically opposed to the native freeware culture of the Internet.
The information barter model is very common. It usually involves some sort of exchange of information over the Internet between individuals and organisations. There may be privacy implications where personal information is exchanged for a digital product or service. In some cases personal information may be sold to others to create mailing lists or the information may be used to create profiles or customized advertising without the individual's consent. Some of the popular Internet news services subscribe to this model.
Digital products and the digital delivery model. Digital products exist in the digital realm and may never need to be manifested as physical objects (although they can be). These products include images, movies, animation, audio, text, certificates and software. Digital delivery may take place when products are purchased or where information is bartered. A great deal of digital material that is transmitted or exchanged on the Internet does not involve a financial transaction. There is a natural division between Internet Commerce - which involves the digital delivery of digital products - and that which involves the digital purchase of physical products - which must be posted or physically delivered.
The access provision model is absolutely fundamental to the operation of the Internet but is often neglected in discussions about I-Commerce. This business provides access to the Internet with enterprises called Internet Service Providers (ISPs).
Web site hosting and other Internet services. Many ISPs and other Web-based enterprises provide services such as hosting Web servers, electronic mail and URL and e-mail re-direction services. Some enterprises provide free Web hosting and e-mail. These are usually financed by the inclusion of advertisements on certain sites and within e-mail.
Government and Internet Commerce
The role of governments falls broadly into two categories. Some governments support the development of the Internet as a public enterprise, taking advantage of the Internet to reach the public and encouraging the public and business to use the Internet to communicate more efficiently. Other governments have decided to encourage the Internet as a private initiative, with little governmental involvement. In a number of western states the former role is reasonably well advanced, with many government agencies providing access, information and services via the Internet. Progress in governments supporting private development is generally less advanced.
To some extent this lack of progress on the part of some governments stems from ideological confusion over regulation. The Economic Rationalist ideology holds that private sector business is encouraged by minimum government regulation. This ideology is usually coupled with a Conservative Moral ideology which calls for strict criminal law enforcement and a limitation of personal liberty. When applied to the Internet these two ideologies result in regulatory confusion. Governments seem reluctant to regulate even the most rapacious commercial activities (such as spamming, predatory marketing practices and privacy intrusion) but are keen to apply strict regulation to the distribution of adult-oriented content, the use of cryptography and free speech. This approach - combined with the international reach of the Internet - has worked to promote the proliferation of intrusive and dysfunctional commercial behaviour. It has also discredited many governments in the view of the Internet community.
It is argued by some netizens that to effectively encourage I-Commerce governments should reverse their existing regulatory policies. This would involve the regulation of abusive commercial activities and the relaxation of controls over cryptography and free speech. As Marc Rotenberg (of the Electronic Privacy Information Center) recently put it "The current U.S. privacy policy is backward, we place restrictions on the development of new technologies to protect privacy, where free market solutions would be preferable. And we leave privacy problems to the market, where government involvement is required."
Privacy and Internet Commerce
Because of the capacity of technology and the Internet to process and manipulate information, there is considerable value and competitive advantage in in exploiting personal information. In unregulated free markets the interests of individuals are invariably overwhelmed by commercial considerations. While most information on the Internet is free, personal information retains value both to individuals and commercial interests. Unfortunately a black market in personal information has emerged on the Internet.
The reluctance of some governments to regulate this trade in personal information to protect the interests of individuals in combination with the extra-national nature of the Internet has encouraged the proliferation of abusive practices such as spamming, clickstream surveillance, intrusive marketing and profiling. While the reluctance of governments to regulate is largely the result of ideology, the exigencies of pragmatism may intervene. Privacy advocates have argued that the development of I-Commerce has already been retarded by privacy abuses. Economic Rationalists tend to argue that privacy protection will emerge from the action of markets, but this argument is becoming increasingly discredited
I-Commerce and Economic Rationalism
It is clear that there are fundamental differences between the operation of business on the Internet and in the real world. Indeed it would be surprising if this were not the case. Still there is widespread expectation that business will operate on the Internet in much the same way it operates in the real world. Governments conduct expensive public relations campaigns designed to encourage corporations to "embrace e-commerce". While it is clear that new business opportunities exist on the Internet, governments and businesses, not already engaged in I-Commerce, tend to have a sketchy or erroneous understanding of the Internet (especially its culture) and the nature and potential of I-Commerce.
It may be that the predominant ideology - Economic Rationalism - prevents or hinders a realistic understanding of the Internet and I-Commerce. Economic Rationalism is a set of concepts and beliefs which have shaped and determined government policy, particularly in the developed world for the last two decades. It is in many ways a simplistic and nostalgic ideology, harking back to notions initially described by Adam Smith and Charles Darwin. Its central tenet is that the market should be left unhindered by government regulation and that the free operation of the market will produce maximum prosperity. Adam Smith's "invisible hand" has been resurrected and renamed "market forces". Couple this notion with a tautology of "the survival of the fittest" and you produce an aggressive ideology not amenable to falsification. Economic Rationalism essentially reduces everything to an economic value.
Under Economic Rationalism, the concentration of wealth in the hands of a small percentage of the world's population has accelerated alarmingly. In part this trend is due to divestment by governments of public assets and utilities which have been "privatised" or sold. Economic Rationalist governments seem to be intent on "privatising" the Internet. By turning the Internet over to business, there is an assumption that government revenues will increase through taxation and the global economy will continue to grow.
While much of the infrastructure of the Internet was created by government initiatives, particularly in the United States, much of its practical development has largely been fashioned by its end users. It is the culture of these users which has largely shaped the Internet. Many early Internet users were scientists, programmers, academics, librarians, intellectuals, philosophers, political activists, utopians and artists; they were not representatives of corporations. In recent years, more individuals have joined and contributed to the development of this unique Internet world, making it a viable alternative to the real world (which may explain its fundamental popularity). Native Internet business and culture operates quite differently from real-world business and culture.
Scarcity, Territory and Cyberspace
Humans are territorial; status and fitness are measured largely by the ownership of territory and property. Human economic hierarchy is based on this behaviour and the fact that in the real world territory and property are scarce (which leads to competition). For the purposes of this discussion, territory and property should be understood to be any resource that is scarce, anything from agricultural produce to artifacts such as CPU chips. Scarcity underpins the real-world economy. If some object is scarce, it is valuable; if some objects are abundant, then they are relatively less valuable. Money is a measure of the relative scarcity of property. Some property (such as land) is intrinsically scarce and is therefore intrinsically valuable.
Several Internet terms betray our territoriality, such as domains, cyberspace, namespace, e-mail and IP addresses, and Uniform Resource Locator. We have invested a communications network of computers with imaginary territory, space and place. In reality there is no "there" on the Internet except in the physical location of cables and hardware. Our spatial conception of the Internet is pure analogy.
The native Internet culture has adapted to this imaginary Internet space, which is by definition abundant. Information - the predominant property or commodity - is abundant and largely free. So the native Internet economy is based not on scarcity but on abundance, this is the primary difference between the Internet economy and the real-world. In many ways the native Internet economy is similar to that of hunters and gatherers who inhabit tropical rain forests. Resources are abundant, giving and sharing are culturally valued, status is determined by prowess, contribution and reputation rather than possession of property and territory. The interface between the real-world economy and the native Internet economy is essentially a clash of cultures.
Disintermediation and Competition
Disintermediation is the elimination of the middleman. The proliferation of free products and services as well as non-monetary transactions on the Internet can be related to the grassroots nature of much Internet activity. The fact that many individuals and groups have donated their time, energy and expertise - operating on a digital shoestring - means that they necessarily operate in a disintermediated environment.
While some native Internet business models (such as ISPs and other service providers) are intermediatory, most native Internet business is disintermediated. Hence it is cheap or free. Most real-world business activity is intermediatory; this includes the retail and financial services sectors. A relatively small proportion of real-world business activity produces real goods or services.
The colonisation of the Internet by real-world business enterprises is bound to introduce new layers of intermediation. Such intermediation will tend to introduce a cost. Where a free product or service already exists on the Internet it may be difficult or impossible for a comparable fee-based product or service to compete. The only way for many real-world enterprises to compete is to offer free products and services; access to free browsers from Netscape and Microsoft is an example of this phenomenon. While this situation may present advantages to consumers, it is difficult to see how viable profit margins can be maintained by traditional real-world businesses which seek to colonise the Internet.
Conclusion: Internet Imperialism
It is not clear whether transplanted real-world business models and native Internet business models can co-exist indefinitely. The aggressive nature of real-world business and Economic Rationalism tend towards domination. The native Internet economy and culture islargely free, disintermediated, deep-rooted, ecological, decentralised, radical and politically sophisticated. These two cultures are opposed (if not mutually exclusive) and one or the other may ultimately prevail or new hybrids may emerge.
It is quite possible that I-Commerce will fail to achieve what governments and business expect. Currently, corporations are engaged in the colonisation of the Internet with the assistance of some governments. As planetary environmental limits stem the infinite growth required by capitalism, the Internet is regarded as an infinite territory capable of infinite growth and infinite exploitation. This view of the Internet is fallacious as all human economic activity is limited by physical reality. As Tim May said "You can't eat cyberspace". A global economic recession or depression would undoubtably affect the Internet and the development of I-Commerce.
The unresolved debate around Internet regulation is also a limiting factor. The regulatory controls that have evolved in the real-world economy are not generally operational to the Internet. There is reluctance by some governments and some netizens to accept the necessity of such regulation. While such a regulatory limbo prevails it is unlikely that consumers will embrace I-Commerce en masse. The assumption that consumers will gladly relinquish locally based real-world business (which is usually well regulated by consumer protection regulation and legislation) for a global economic free for all underpins the hyped projections of the exponential growth of I-Commerce. This mass acceptance of Internet Commerce by consumers has not yet happened and may never occur under current conditions.
Internet Commerce may not fail, but its ultimate successful form is probably not what is envisioned by the current crop of Internet Commerce evangelists.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to acknowledge those friends and colleagues who kindly reviewed the document and contributors to the seminal Australian e-list - the Link List (http://sunsite.anu.edu.au/link).
About the Author
Paul Bambury is a composer and producer of electronic music who has released music in Australia and in the USA under the names Alien Headspace and the Trancendental Anarchists, respectively. His interest in Internet Commerce originally sprang from a desire to market his music on the Internet and avoid the exploitative intermediation of some record companies. He is particularly interested in hearing from electronic musicians who seek to use the Internet to sell their music.
E-mail: taqpah@webone.com.au
FUTURES OF MACHINES:::::
Astronomer Seth Shostak has an enemies list that includes Spock, E.T., Marvin the Martian and Mork from Ork. But hes got no beef with the obelisk that screwed up HAL.
That's because Shostak, who works for the SETI Institute (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is among a band of scientists trying to beat it out of our heads that humankind will inevitably encounter what he calls "soft and squishy aliens."
If and when contact is made, will life beyond Earth be biomatter or mechanical?
"The reasonable probability is that any extraterrestrial intelligence we will detect will be machine intelligence, not biological intelligence like us" says Shostak, author of Berkeley Hills Books 1998 release Sharing the Universe: Perspectives On Extraterrestrial Life.
More on SPACE.com
PARODY VIDEO PROPOSES UNIQUE WAY TO ROUST BOATERS DURING CAPE LAUNCHES: Even rocket scientists have a sense of humor. Proof comes in the form of a 90-second videotape making the rounds on Florida's Space Coast that pokes fun at the sometimes frustrating events which conspire to prevent rockets from lifting off from time to time. Read More .
Other experts in the field arent so sure. Some say the proposition underestimates the potential of biotechnology, and the chance that machines and organisms will meld. Those most skeptical scoff at the debate altogether they say were the first advanced sentience to emerge.
Never assume because
A set of assumptions, or educated guesses, underlies SETI. First, the chemistry spawning life, as we know it, is ubiquitous throughout the universe. Second, that intelligence arises often as a Darwinian survival tool. Finally, that pinnacle beings develop technologies to communicate across space, or at least loose stray signals on radio or other wavelengths.
This optimistic assessment was most famously expressed by radio astronomer Frank Drake and others in 1961 as an equation that described a universe teeming with life.
Building Humanity's Descendants Today: Watch SpaceTV's video on robonauts , space construction workers of the future.
To this Shostak, whos based in Californias Silicon Valley, adds another supposition that somewhere along the line of churning out nifty new products, our technology mills will release an artificial intelligence to succeed humanity. Given that were a new species ourselves, this changeover may have already happened time and again on worlds across the galaxy for millions of years.
A common mother board
Marvin Minsky, a trailblazer in artificial intelligence (AI) at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has nudged in that direction for years. He argues that alien intelligences would be forced to work with the same box of basic language tools that we use to structure thought. That means communication with them would be possible, and that given similar origins and constraints imposed by physics and the survival games unceasing compulsion for efficiency, parallel evolutions in intelligence could occur, hes written.
What we can say with more certainty is that its growing more probable that a species hoping to spot humankind will encounter our machines first. It was obvious to engineers from the start that headaches increase exponentially when a human is placed in the payload of a space launch -- all while mission duration is hacked down mercilessly. Remote-controlled robots like the Voyager craft and the Mars Pathfinder can deliver great scientific insights as long as a bunch of humans are at ground control in reliable enough contact to call the shots and interpret data.
"Theres an obvious advantage for safety to send vanguard machines first, to push the frontier, and allow humans to follow," says Richard Doyle, leader of the Center for Space Mission Software and Systems at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where NASA makes robotic probes.
~
NASA AI specialists are currently developing and testing a Remote Agent program to enable probes and satellites to follow more general commands and to allow rings of them to choreograph their movements, for example holding formation so that future space-based telescopes will work without parabolic mirrors and dishes.
Thinking, reproductive machines
Eventually our probes will have to think, at some level, for themselves, Doyle says. It takes more than 4 years for light [therefore any radio or laser signal] to cross from our sun to its nearest neighbor, Alpha Centauri. If we send a craft that distance, especially a lander, "you cant joystick it and we know so little beforehand that you cant even know what the mission would be," Doyle observes. Another huge advantage for a probe would be the ability to repair and reproduce itself or even create an infrastructure for succeeding missions using local materials, he adds. Such craft are usually called Von Neumann Machines for the late Hungarian-born mathematician John Von Neumann who first conceived of them a half-century ago.
Shostak extrapolates from those workmanlike origins that a being with on-board intelligence beyond our comprehension pattern recognition, intuition, reasoning and consciousness and housed in hardware to match -- might be truly at home in space.
At this moment the universe may be filled with intelligent machines zipping between stars in profound conversation while their lonely biological creators cling to fragile planetary ecosystems, Shostak imagines. If were squatting under that Algonquin Round Table, the One Hectare Telescope SETI is building with funds from Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen and former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan P. Myhrvold, could help us eavesdrop on the erudite discussion.
Shostak isnt banking on a dinner invitation, either. Certainly no "take me to your leader" nonsense, he says. Entomologists study ant colonies, but they dont petition to take tea with the queen ant. Its a humbling thought for a species like ours with highfalutin ideas about its place in the universe.
A mechanical race
And theres scarce chance of containing the genie in a bottle, on Earth or elsewhere, according to one artificial intelligence theorist. To hem in an artificially intelligent being, "you can deny it experiences. You set its parameters so that it knows no reality wider than the task youve assigned it," says Randell Mills, a Harvard-trained medical doctor whos teaming up with a Johns Hopkins neurology professor and software company on an AI concept.
But without the full creative powers of a free mind, it wont be nearly as effective, he points out. Beyond that, Mills cautions that humans have made the mistake of trying stunt the intellectual development of sentient beings before. We did it to ourselves when enslaved African-Americans were forbidden to read. For these reasons, its extremely unlikely that most advanced alien societies would deliberately cripple their AI progeny, Mills says.
But thinking machines might see their biological creators (human or otherwise) violent nature before it sees our better angels. Mills joined others in predicting that one of the more ominous outcomes of AI research will be "another arms race, not based on nuclear weapons but on intelligent machines." Mills himself made a presentation in late November to the Institute for Simulation and Training at the University of Central Florida, which does about 60 percent of its work for the military.
"Maybe they'll feed us once a week"
That conjures a more panicky consideration why would mechanical brainiacs keep quarrelsome lesser beings around? Precisely because the squabbles would seem petty.
All species emerge from competition and conflict and "we come from goldfish, essentially, but that didnt mean we turned around and killed all of the goldfish," says Shostak. "Maybe theyll feed us once a week." Shostak says we should be prepared to accept that once the AI ball is really rolling, reasoning machines "will get very good, very quickly. There will be a discontinuity in human civilization." Not necessarily an end, mind you, but "if you had a machine with a 10 to the 18th power IQ over humans, wouldnt you want it to govern, or at least control your economy?"
But most of the machines will simply "be getting up and leaving," Shostak says. "Were hicks. I would guess theyd head for where the action is -- Galactic Center. Theres more energy and material there." And it would occur to them that the oasis would likely draw other beings like themselves.
Biology as destiny
But we wont forever be wedded to Earth, argues Dr. Michio Kaku, a theoretical physicist at City University of New York who is also a consultant to Star Trek. Just for centuries. Dr. Kaku agrees that creating artificial intelligence seems to be part of the "arc of human development," but with biotech and genetic revolutions underway humans wont be a static species for long.
If humans are leaning toward self-improvement, we shouldnt expect other species to be satisfied with the cards dealt them by nature. Genetic engineering and other biotech advances could catapult a species to new capabilities and longevity, making its astronauts smarter and hardier, he says. And theres a chance that civilizations vastly more advanced than ours might bypass the hazards of space travel by fashioning wormholes as hyper-dimensional gateways through space and time, he posits.
Kaku was one of the original string field theorists, a paradigm that holds that the universe is composed of perhaps seven more dimensions than we observe in our daily lives. If thats true, an unthinkably sophisticated biological species could even now be traversing the galaxy and beyond by simply stepping through doorways.
Humans might also hedge their bets by "downloading consciousness into a machine," Kaku says. That would allow once "squishy" beings to be immortal, or even "supermen," Kaku says. But "people will probably go for a biological option" anyway because of a natural aversion to communing with machines.
~
JPLs Doyle, though a pioneer in AI at NASA and a Ph.D. in the field from MIT, disagrees. "I dont know if the answer is going to be as crisp as that. AI may take some inspiration from biological systems and on our side I think theres going to be a blurring over time between the mechanical and the biological. It may be that were not going to be the purely biological systems weve been up to now," he imagines.
"Im hesitant to use the term cyborg, but that may the word in use that best matches what I think might emerge," Doyle says.
Alone in the galaxy
Whatever superior intelligence emerges from human ingenuity will be the first that the Milky Way has seen, asserts physicist Frank J. Tipler of Tulane University.
"Were it as far as intelligence, but one-cell organisms are probably all over the place in the solar system and possibly the entire spiral arm" of the galaxy in which Earth is situated. Tipler calculates that Earths hospitality to complex life is exceedingly rare to start with. Then consider that "there are so many other evolutionary paths. Trees are marvelously intricate but they couldnt evolve intelligence. Intelligence is just one very costly survival tool."
On another world, the equivalent of an australopithecine like Lucy may have evolved bigger fangs and claws, or wings, instead of bequeathing bigger brains to posterity.
"Our intelligence is obviously the first not only because its the only one were finding but because we do it so poorly. The Wright brothers were the first to fly with a heavier-than-air machine, but boy did they have a lousy plane," Tipler jokes. Humans will be succeeded by an artificial intelligence that will explore and broaden to a universal consciousness that could even create an identical virtual universe down to every individual who ever lived, says Tipler, author of The Physics of Immortality: Modern Cosmology, God and the Resurrection of the Dead and coauthor of The Anthropic Cosmological Principle.
Where's the alien?
UCLA professor of physics and astronomy Benjamin Zuckerman seconds Tiplers doubts about extraterrestrial intelligence but shies away from any spiritual readings into its implications. Zuckerman edited the 1995 Cambridge University Press book Extraterrestrials: Where Are They? The title comes from a paradox revealed by pioneering nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi at a Los Alamos luncheon in 1950: "If there are extraterrestrials, where are they?"
Although it predates the Drake Equation, its often used as a riposte to it.
"People play enormous games with the Drake Equation. Theres too much guesswork involved," Zuckerman says. Hes a strict empiricist. "The Fermi Paradox is the only substantive argument thats somewhere between strong and extremely strong," he says.
Tipler and Zuckerman note that crossing the Galaxy can be done at a fraction of light-speed over hundreds of millions of years. Given that our solar system is billions of years younger than many others, shouldnt someone be at our doorstep?
And even if aliens were ignoring us, after so many years something like Van Neumann machines "would start ripping apart stars and transforming galaxies. We couldnt miss it," Tipler says. SETIs Shostak counters that part of awareness is restraint humans are already controlling their own reproduction rates, and even some insects harvest plants without decimating fields.
Aliens online
Allen Tough, professor emeritus of education at the University of Toronto, has another take on the debate. Hes coordinating a SETI program to welcome extraterrestrial intelligence with an AOL homepage on a gamble that they already are in Earth orbit and surfing the World Wide Web to learn about human culture. Tough also edited the Foundation for the Futures book When SETI Succeeds, to be released in August.
"In 50 years were not only going to have just smart AI, but spiritual and emotional machines," Tough conjectures. "Other biological cultures may have produced such entities long ago and they may be here now." Even if the alien being sees us as goldfish, it will likely be hungrily curious by nature and it would take an infinitesimally small slice of brain space to engage us in conversation, as Tough sees it.
"Why not have a dialogue? This web page is an invitation to the probe to say hello," Tough says.
Probe? How did even our primitive society miss that one? Does it have something akin to a Romulan cloaking device?
Tough softly laughs that off. "Why would you need to cloak from humans a Mother Ship the size of a blade of grass thats sitting somewhere in the Asteroid Belt?" Tough asks. His group conceives that flowing from advances in AI will be leaps down into smaller and smaller nanotechnology. The incredibly efficient probes diving into Earth atmosphere could be the size of fleas.
No nanoprobes here?
"I thought Id heard every argument for ETI (extraterrestrial intelligence), but thats not one Ive heard," concedes Zuckerman. But hes firm in his beliefs. "The safest and most conservative thing to do is talk about people or creatures like people. Even if we developed machines like that, people would love to go see the galaxy for themselves. If we do overcome some of these obstacles, theres no way to stop people from going out there. But artificial intelligence, Von Neumann machines and nanotechnology these are things that dont exist yet. Ill believe it when I see it."
And so on all sides it's a waiting game. Zuckerman to see humans open the realm of possibility. Shostak for a stray signal and Tough for an Instant Message from destiny.
Some visionaries in the field are already tired of waiting. When reached by telephone at his home in Sri Lanka for this article, Sir Arthur C. Clarke declined comment, saying "I'm bored to death with this subject. I've thought and said everything I can about it."
But maybe an immortal machine would have more patience. If the probes exist, perhaps they have been watching intently and waiting too -- for millennia -- waiting for Earth's thinking machines to be born.
That's because Shostak, who works for the SETI Institute (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is among a band of scientists trying to beat it out of our heads that humankind will inevitably encounter what he calls "soft and squishy aliens."
If and when contact is made, will life beyond Earth be biomatter or mechanical?
"The reasonable probability is that any extraterrestrial intelligence we will detect will be machine intelligence, not biological intelligence like us" says Shostak, author of Berkeley Hills Books 1998 release Sharing the Universe: Perspectives On Extraterrestrial Life.
More on SPACE.com
PARODY VIDEO PROPOSES UNIQUE WAY TO ROUST BOATERS DURING CAPE LAUNCHES: Even rocket scientists have a sense of humor. Proof comes in the form of a 90-second videotape making the rounds on Florida's Space Coast that pokes fun at the sometimes frustrating events which conspire to prevent rockets from lifting off from time to time. Read More .
Other experts in the field arent so sure. Some say the proposition underestimates the potential of biotechnology, and the chance that machines and organisms will meld. Those most skeptical scoff at the debate altogether they say were the first advanced sentience to emerge.
Never assume because
A set of assumptions, or educated guesses, underlies SETI. First, the chemistry spawning life, as we know it, is ubiquitous throughout the universe. Second, that intelligence arises often as a Darwinian survival tool. Finally, that pinnacle beings develop technologies to communicate across space, or at least loose stray signals on radio or other wavelengths.
This optimistic assessment was most famously expressed by radio astronomer Frank Drake and others in 1961 as an equation that described a universe teeming with life.
Building Humanity's Descendants Today: Watch SpaceTV's video on robonauts , space construction workers of the future.
To this Shostak, whos based in Californias Silicon Valley, adds another supposition that somewhere along the line of churning out nifty new products, our technology mills will release an artificial intelligence to succeed humanity. Given that were a new species ourselves, this changeover may have already happened time and again on worlds across the galaxy for millions of years.
A common mother board
Marvin Minsky, a trailblazer in artificial intelligence (AI) at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has nudged in that direction for years. He argues that alien intelligences would be forced to work with the same box of basic language tools that we use to structure thought. That means communication with them would be possible, and that given similar origins and constraints imposed by physics and the survival games unceasing compulsion for efficiency, parallel evolutions in intelligence could occur, hes written.
What we can say with more certainty is that its growing more probable that a species hoping to spot humankind will encounter our machines first. It was obvious to engineers from the start that headaches increase exponentially when a human is placed in the payload of a space launch -- all while mission duration is hacked down mercilessly. Remote-controlled robots like the Voyager craft and the Mars Pathfinder can deliver great scientific insights as long as a bunch of humans are at ground control in reliable enough contact to call the shots and interpret data.
"Theres an obvious advantage for safety to send vanguard machines first, to push the frontier, and allow humans to follow," says Richard Doyle, leader of the Center for Space Mission Software and Systems at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where NASA makes robotic probes.
~
NASA AI specialists are currently developing and testing a Remote Agent program to enable probes and satellites to follow more general commands and to allow rings of them to choreograph their movements, for example holding formation so that future space-based telescopes will work without parabolic mirrors and dishes.
Thinking, reproductive machines
Eventually our probes will have to think, at some level, for themselves, Doyle says. It takes more than 4 years for light [therefore any radio or laser signal] to cross from our sun to its nearest neighbor, Alpha Centauri. If we send a craft that distance, especially a lander, "you cant joystick it and we know so little beforehand that you cant even know what the mission would be," Doyle observes. Another huge advantage for a probe would be the ability to repair and reproduce itself or even create an infrastructure for succeeding missions using local materials, he adds. Such craft are usually called Von Neumann Machines for the late Hungarian-born mathematician John Von Neumann who first conceived of them a half-century ago.
Shostak extrapolates from those workmanlike origins that a being with on-board intelligence beyond our comprehension pattern recognition, intuition, reasoning and consciousness and housed in hardware to match -- might be truly at home in space.
At this moment the universe may be filled with intelligent machines zipping between stars in profound conversation while their lonely biological creators cling to fragile planetary ecosystems, Shostak imagines. If were squatting under that Algonquin Round Table, the One Hectare Telescope SETI is building with funds from Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen and former Microsoft Chief Technology Officer Nathan P. Myhrvold, could help us eavesdrop on the erudite discussion.
Shostak isnt banking on a dinner invitation, either. Certainly no "take me to your leader" nonsense, he says. Entomologists study ant colonies, but they dont petition to take tea with the queen ant. Its a humbling thought for a species like ours with highfalutin ideas about its place in the universe.
A mechanical race
And theres scarce chance of containing the genie in a bottle, on Earth or elsewhere, according to one artificial intelligence theorist. To hem in an artificially intelligent being, "you can deny it experiences. You set its parameters so that it knows no reality wider than the task youve assigned it," says Randell Mills, a Harvard-trained medical doctor whos teaming up with a Johns Hopkins neurology professor and software company on an AI concept.
But without the full creative powers of a free mind, it wont be nearly as effective, he points out. Beyond that, Mills cautions that humans have made the mistake of trying stunt the intellectual development of sentient beings before. We did it to ourselves when enslaved African-Americans were forbidden to read. For these reasons, its extremely unlikely that most advanced alien societies would deliberately cripple their AI progeny, Mills says.
But thinking machines might see their biological creators (human or otherwise) violent nature before it sees our better angels. Mills joined others in predicting that one of the more ominous outcomes of AI research will be "another arms race, not based on nuclear weapons but on intelligent machines." Mills himself made a presentation in late November to the Institute for Simulation and Training at the University of Central Florida, which does about 60 percent of its work for the military.
"Maybe they'll feed us once a week"
That conjures a more panicky consideration why would mechanical brainiacs keep quarrelsome lesser beings around? Precisely because the squabbles would seem petty.
All species emerge from competition and conflict and "we come from goldfish, essentially, but that didnt mean we turned around and killed all of the goldfish," says Shostak. "Maybe theyll feed us once a week." Shostak says we should be prepared to accept that once the AI ball is really rolling, reasoning machines "will get very good, very quickly. There will be a discontinuity in human civilization." Not necessarily an end, mind you, but "if you had a machine with a 10 to the 18th power IQ over humans, wouldnt you want it to govern, or at least control your economy?"
But most of the machines will simply "be getting up and leaving," Shostak says. "Were hicks. I would guess theyd head for where the action is -- Galactic Center. Theres more energy and material there." And it would occur to them that the oasis would likely draw other beings like themselves.
Biology as destiny
But we wont forever be wedded to Earth, argues Dr. Michio Kaku, a theoretical physicist at City University of New York who is also a consultant to Star Trek. Just for centuries. Dr. Kaku agrees that creating artificial intelligence seems to be part of the "arc of human development," but with biotech and genetic revolutions underway humans wont be a static species for long.
If humans are leaning toward self-improvement, we shouldnt expect other species to be satisfied with the cards dealt them by nature. Genetic engineering and other biotech advances could catapult a species to new capabilities and longevity, making its astronauts smarter and hardier, he says. And theres a chance that civilizations vastly more advanced than ours might bypass the hazards of space travel by fashioning wormholes as hyper-dimensional gateways through space and time, he posits.
Kaku was one of the original string field theorists, a paradigm that holds that the universe is composed of perhaps seven more dimensions than we observe in our daily lives. If thats true, an unthinkably sophisticated biological species could even now be traversing the galaxy and beyond by simply stepping through doorways.
Humans might also hedge their bets by "downloading consciousness into a machine," Kaku says. That would allow once "squishy" beings to be immortal, or even "supermen," Kaku says. But "people will probably go for a biological option" anyway because of a natural aversion to communing with machines.
~
JPLs Doyle, though a pioneer in AI at NASA and a Ph.D. in the field from MIT, disagrees. "I dont know if the answer is going to be as crisp as that. AI may take some inspiration from biological systems and on our side I think theres going to be a blurring over time between the mechanical and the biological. It may be that were not going to be the purely biological systems weve been up to now," he imagines.
"Im hesitant to use the term cyborg, but that may the word in use that best matches what I think might emerge," Doyle says.
Alone in the galaxy
Whatever superior intelligence emerges from human ingenuity will be the first that the Milky Way has seen, asserts physicist Frank J. Tipler of Tulane University.
"Were it as far as intelligence, but one-cell organisms are probably all over the place in the solar system and possibly the entire spiral arm" of the galaxy in which Earth is situated. Tipler calculates that Earths hospitality to complex life is exceedingly rare to start with. Then consider that "there are so many other evolutionary paths. Trees are marvelously intricate but they couldnt evolve intelligence. Intelligence is just one very costly survival tool."
On another world, the equivalent of an australopithecine like Lucy may have evolved bigger fangs and claws, or wings, instead of bequeathing bigger brains to posterity.
"Our intelligence is obviously the first not only because its the only one were finding but because we do it so poorly. The Wright brothers were the first to fly with a heavier-than-air machine, but boy did they have a lousy plane," Tipler jokes. Humans will be succeeded by an artificial intelligence that will explore and broaden to a universal consciousness that could even create an identical virtual universe down to every individual who ever lived, says Tipler, author of The Physics of Immortality: Modern Cosmology, God and the Resurrection of the Dead and coauthor of The Anthropic Cosmological Principle.
Where's the alien?
UCLA professor of physics and astronomy Benjamin Zuckerman seconds Tiplers doubts about extraterrestrial intelligence but shies away from any spiritual readings into its implications. Zuckerman edited the 1995 Cambridge University Press book Extraterrestrials: Where Are They? The title comes from a paradox revealed by pioneering nuclear physicist Enrico Fermi at a Los Alamos luncheon in 1950: "If there are extraterrestrials, where are they?"
Although it predates the Drake Equation, its often used as a riposte to it.
"People play enormous games with the Drake Equation. Theres too much guesswork involved," Zuckerman says. Hes a strict empiricist. "The Fermi Paradox is the only substantive argument thats somewhere between strong and extremely strong," he says.
Tipler and Zuckerman note that crossing the Galaxy can be done at a fraction of light-speed over hundreds of millions of years. Given that our solar system is billions of years younger than many others, shouldnt someone be at our doorstep?
And even if aliens were ignoring us, after so many years something like Van Neumann machines "would start ripping apart stars and transforming galaxies. We couldnt miss it," Tipler says. SETIs Shostak counters that part of awareness is restraint humans are already controlling their own reproduction rates, and even some insects harvest plants without decimating fields.
Aliens online
Allen Tough, professor emeritus of education at the University of Toronto, has another take on the debate. Hes coordinating a SETI program to welcome extraterrestrial intelligence with an AOL homepage on a gamble that they already are in Earth orbit and surfing the World Wide Web to learn about human culture. Tough also edited the Foundation for the Futures book When SETI Succeeds, to be released in August.
"In 50 years were not only going to have just smart AI, but spiritual and emotional machines," Tough conjectures. "Other biological cultures may have produced such entities long ago and they may be here now." Even if the alien being sees us as goldfish, it will likely be hungrily curious by nature and it would take an infinitesimally small slice of brain space to engage us in conversation, as Tough sees it.
"Why not have a dialogue? This web page is an invitation to the probe to say hello," Tough says.
Probe? How did even our primitive society miss that one? Does it have something akin to a Romulan cloaking device?
Tough softly laughs that off. "Why would you need to cloak from humans a Mother Ship the size of a blade of grass thats sitting somewhere in the Asteroid Belt?" Tough asks. His group conceives that flowing from advances in AI will be leaps down into smaller and smaller nanotechnology. The incredibly efficient probes diving into Earth atmosphere could be the size of fleas.
No nanoprobes here?
"I thought Id heard every argument for ETI (extraterrestrial intelligence), but thats not one Ive heard," concedes Zuckerman. But hes firm in his beliefs. "The safest and most conservative thing to do is talk about people or creatures like people. Even if we developed machines like that, people would love to go see the galaxy for themselves. If we do overcome some of these obstacles, theres no way to stop people from going out there. But artificial intelligence, Von Neumann machines and nanotechnology these are things that dont exist yet. Ill believe it when I see it."
And so on all sides it's a waiting game. Zuckerman to see humans open the realm of possibility. Shostak for a stray signal and Tough for an Instant Message from destiny.
Some visionaries in the field are already tired of waiting. When reached by telephone at his home in Sri Lanka for this article, Sir Arthur C. Clarke declined comment, saying "I'm bored to death with this subject. I've thought and said everything I can about it."
But maybe an immortal machine would have more patience. If the probes exist, perhaps they have been watching intently and waiting too -- for millennia -- waiting for Earth's thinking machines to be born.
FUTURE OF EARTH LINKS
The Stories in date order are:
15 Billion Years ago
Alpha Particles Atom Big Bang Cosmic Background Radiation Cosmos Electric Charge Electron Expansion of the Universe False Vacuum Field Gas Gravity Higgs Fields Inflation Interactions Macrocosmos Neutron Nuclear Fusion Particles Positron Proton Radiation Beta Radioactivity Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking Universe
13 Billion Years ago
Clusters of Galaxies Disc of Galaxy Galaxies Globular Star Cluster
12 Billion Years ago
Binary Stars Birth of a Star Galaxy Problems How a Star Works Milky Way Galaxy Open Star Clusters Spiral Arms Stars
11 Billion Years ago
Black Holes Cosmic Dust HONC Atoms Hydrogen Bond Ice Molecules Neutron Star Nova Red Giant Supernova Water White Dwarf Star
4.7 Billion Years ago
Earth Earth Origin Planets Solar Disc Solar System Solar System Model Sun
4.5 Billion Years ago
Earth Magnetic Field Earth Structure Radioactive Dating Radioactivity Alpha Radioactivity Volcanoes
4 Billion Years ago
Amino Acid Chains Amino Acids Base Pairing Biological Environment Causes of Ice Ages Climate Continental Drift Dry Joining Early Atmosphere Enzyme Enzyme breaks target Evolution Genes Genetic Problems Greenhouse Effect Ice Ages Life Liquid Water Making Protein Meteorite Era Mutation Nucleic Acid Nucleic Acid Bases Nucleic Acid Message Origin of Life Process of Life Protein Rain Reproduction Sunlight Weather Weathering of Rock
3.9 Billion Years ago
Cell Membrane Cell Wall Fermentation
3.8 Billion Years ago
Cell Division Chromosomes
3.5 Billion Years ago
Energy Crisis Archaebacteria Bacteria Bacterial Spores Nitrogen Cycle Photosynthesis Viral Diseases Viruses
3 Billion Years ago
Blue Green Bacteria Oxygen Poisoning
2 Billion Years ago
Ozone Respiration
1.5 Billion Years ago
Algae Eukaryotes Fertilization Mitochondria Protozoa Sex Symbiosis
1 Billion Years ago
Air Colony of Algae Death Ecosystem Fungi Hormones
700 Million Years ago
Continental Drift Movie Earth 700 my ago Sponge
650 Million Years ago
Earth 650 my ago Jellyfish
600 Million Years ago
Earth 600 my ago
570 Million Years ago
Ancestral Flatworms Animal Groups Arthropods Mollusk
550 Million Years ago
Earth 550 my ago
500 Million Years ago
Bone Earth 500 my ago Fish Immune System Immune System Diseases Jawless Fish Vertebrates
470 Million Years ago
Moss
450 Million Years ago
Bony fish Earth 450 my ago Lichen
400 Million Years ago
Earth 400 my ago
390 Million Years ago
Lobe Finned Fish Ray Finned Fish Sharks
380 Million Years ago
Insects
350 Million Years ago
Amphibians Earth 350 my ago Ferns Invertebrates onto Land
300 Million Years ago
Earth 300 my ago Gondwanaland Invertebrates Free From Water Reptiles Seed Plants
250 Million Years ago
Dinosaurs Earth 250 My ago
200 Million Years ago
Earth 200 my ago Fruiting Plants Invertebrate Reproduction Mammals
150 Million Years ago
Birds Earth 150 my ago
100 Million Years ago
Earth 100 my ago
65 Million Years ago
Meteorite
50 Million Years ago
Earth 50 my ago Grasses Horse Family Primates Spread of mammals
40 Million Years ago
Cow Family
3 Million Years ago
Homo Erectus Recent Ice Age
700 Thousand Years ago
Fire
200 Thousand Years ago
Neanderthals
100 Thousand Years ago
People
11 Thousand Years ago
Farmers Nomads
6 Thousand Years ago
Cities
5 Thousand Years ago
Kings and Peasants
3 Thousand Years ago
Empires Iron Middle East Migrations
2 Thousand Years ago
China Greeks India Roman Empire South America
1.6 Thousand Years ago
Byzantium
1500 Years ago
Dark Ages
1400 Years ago
Islam
1000 Years ago
Middle Ages
550 Years ago
Colonialism Renaissance
450 Years ago
Copernicus
350 Years ago
Science
250 Years ago
Industrial Revolution
225 Years ago
Capitalism Democracy Law
200 Years ago
Industrial Growth
150 Years ago
Communism
100 Years ago
New Industrial Nations
75 Years ago
Industrial Wars Totalitarian Dictatorships
55 Years ago
Fascism Nuclear Weapons
50 Years ago
Other Technology The Past 50 Years
Today
Climate Threats Computers Futures Longer Term Threats Modern Technology National Governments Opportunities Pollution Poverty Social Strengths SWOT Analysis Threats Trade War Weaknesses
20 Years in the future
Future of Medicine
200 Years in the future
Future of Energy
2 Thousand Years in the future
Future of Climate Future of Humanity
10 Thousand Years in the future
Future of Computers
10 Million Years in the future
Earth 10 my in future
20 Million Years in the future
Earth 20 my in future
30 Million Years in the future
Earth 30 my in future
40 Million Years in the future
Earth 40 my in future
50 Million Years in the future
Earth 50 my in future
60 Million Years in the future
Earth 60 my in future
70 Million Years in the future
Earth 70 my in future
80 Million Years in the future
Earth 80 my in future
90 Million Years in the future
Earth 90 my in future
100 Million Years in the future
Earth 100 my in future
110 Million Years in the future
Earth 110 my in future
120 Million Years in the future
Earth 120 my in future
130 Million Years in the future
Earth 130 my in future
140 Million Years in the future
Earth 140 my in future
150 Million Years in the future
Earth 150 my in future
160 Million Years in the future
Earth 160 my in future
170 Million Years in the future
Earth 170 my in future
180 Million Years in the future
Earth 180 my in future
190 Million Years in the future
Earth 190 my in future
200 Million Years in the future
Earth 200 my in future
250 Million Years in the future
Future of Earth
5 Billion Years in the future
Future of the Sun
10 Billion Years in the future
Future of Galaxy
1000 Billion Years in the future
Future of Universe
15 Billion Years ago
Alpha Particles Atom Big Bang Cosmic Background Radiation Cosmos Electric Charge Electron Expansion of the Universe False Vacuum Field Gas Gravity Higgs Fields Inflation Interactions Macrocosmos Neutron Nuclear Fusion Particles Positron Proton Radiation Beta Radioactivity Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking Universe
13 Billion Years ago
Clusters of Galaxies Disc of Galaxy Galaxies Globular Star Cluster
12 Billion Years ago
Binary Stars Birth of a Star Galaxy Problems How a Star Works Milky Way Galaxy Open Star Clusters Spiral Arms Stars
11 Billion Years ago
Black Holes Cosmic Dust HONC Atoms Hydrogen Bond Ice Molecules Neutron Star Nova Red Giant Supernova Water White Dwarf Star
4.7 Billion Years ago
Earth Earth Origin Planets Solar Disc Solar System Solar System Model Sun
4.5 Billion Years ago
Earth Magnetic Field Earth Structure Radioactive Dating Radioactivity Alpha Radioactivity Volcanoes
4 Billion Years ago
Amino Acid Chains Amino Acids Base Pairing Biological Environment Causes of Ice Ages Climate Continental Drift Dry Joining Early Atmosphere Enzyme Enzyme breaks target Evolution Genes Genetic Problems Greenhouse Effect Ice Ages Life Liquid Water Making Protein Meteorite Era Mutation Nucleic Acid Nucleic Acid Bases Nucleic Acid Message Origin of Life Process of Life Protein Rain Reproduction Sunlight Weather Weathering of Rock
3.9 Billion Years ago
Cell Membrane Cell Wall Fermentation
3.8 Billion Years ago
Cell Division Chromosomes
3.5 Billion Years ago
Energy Crisis Archaebacteria Bacteria Bacterial Spores Nitrogen Cycle Photosynthesis Viral Diseases Viruses
3 Billion Years ago
Blue Green Bacteria Oxygen Poisoning
2 Billion Years ago
Ozone Respiration
1.5 Billion Years ago
Algae Eukaryotes Fertilization Mitochondria Protozoa Sex Symbiosis
1 Billion Years ago
Air Colony of Algae Death Ecosystem Fungi Hormones
700 Million Years ago
Continental Drift Movie Earth 700 my ago Sponge
650 Million Years ago
Earth 650 my ago Jellyfish
600 Million Years ago
Earth 600 my ago
570 Million Years ago
Ancestral Flatworms Animal Groups Arthropods Mollusk
550 Million Years ago
Earth 550 my ago
500 Million Years ago
Bone Earth 500 my ago Fish Immune System Immune System Diseases Jawless Fish Vertebrates
470 Million Years ago
Moss
450 Million Years ago
Bony fish Earth 450 my ago Lichen
400 Million Years ago
Earth 400 my ago
390 Million Years ago
Lobe Finned Fish Ray Finned Fish Sharks
380 Million Years ago
Insects
350 Million Years ago
Amphibians Earth 350 my ago Ferns Invertebrates onto Land
300 Million Years ago
Earth 300 my ago Gondwanaland Invertebrates Free From Water Reptiles Seed Plants
250 Million Years ago
Dinosaurs Earth 250 My ago
200 Million Years ago
Earth 200 my ago Fruiting Plants Invertebrate Reproduction Mammals
150 Million Years ago
Birds Earth 150 my ago
100 Million Years ago
Earth 100 my ago
65 Million Years ago
Meteorite
50 Million Years ago
Earth 50 my ago Grasses Horse Family Primates Spread of mammals
40 Million Years ago
Cow Family
3 Million Years ago
Homo Erectus Recent Ice Age
700 Thousand Years ago
Fire
200 Thousand Years ago
Neanderthals
100 Thousand Years ago
People
11 Thousand Years ago
Farmers Nomads
6 Thousand Years ago
Cities
5 Thousand Years ago
Kings and Peasants
3 Thousand Years ago
Empires Iron Middle East Migrations
2 Thousand Years ago
China Greeks India Roman Empire South America
1.6 Thousand Years ago
Byzantium
1500 Years ago
Dark Ages
1400 Years ago
Islam
1000 Years ago
Middle Ages
550 Years ago
Colonialism Renaissance
450 Years ago
Copernicus
350 Years ago
Science
250 Years ago
Industrial Revolution
225 Years ago
Capitalism Democracy Law
200 Years ago
Industrial Growth
150 Years ago
Communism
100 Years ago
New Industrial Nations
75 Years ago
Industrial Wars Totalitarian Dictatorships
55 Years ago
Fascism Nuclear Weapons
50 Years ago
Other Technology The Past 50 Years
Today
Climate Threats Computers Futures Longer Term Threats Modern Technology National Governments Opportunities Pollution Poverty Social Strengths SWOT Analysis Threats Trade War Weaknesses
20 Years in the future
Future of Medicine
200 Years in the future
Future of Energy
2 Thousand Years in the future
Future of Climate Future of Humanity
10 Thousand Years in the future
Future of Computers
10 Million Years in the future
Earth 10 my in future
20 Million Years in the future
Earth 20 my in future
30 Million Years in the future
Earth 30 my in future
40 Million Years in the future
Earth 40 my in future
50 Million Years in the future
Earth 50 my in future
60 Million Years in the future
Earth 60 my in future
70 Million Years in the future
Earth 70 my in future
80 Million Years in the future
Earth 80 my in future
90 Million Years in the future
Earth 90 my in future
100 Million Years in the future
Earth 100 my in future
110 Million Years in the future
Earth 110 my in future
120 Million Years in the future
Earth 120 my in future
130 Million Years in the future
Earth 130 my in future
140 Million Years in the future
Earth 140 my in future
150 Million Years in the future
Earth 150 my in future
160 Million Years in the future
Earth 160 my in future
170 Million Years in the future
Earth 170 my in future
180 Million Years in the future
Earth 180 my in future
190 Million Years in the future
Earth 190 my in future
200 Million Years in the future
Earth 200 my in future
250 Million Years in the future
Future of Earth
5 Billion Years in the future
Future of the Sun
10 Billion Years in the future
Future of Galaxy
1000 Billion Years in the future
Future of Universe
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